Modeling COVID-19 in Italy

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dc.contributorGrigorieva, Ellina
dc.contributor.authorSullivan, Kevin
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-19T23:44:56Z
dc.date.available2021-03-19T23:44:56Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionCreative Arts and Research Symposium
dc.descriptionCreative Arts and Research Symposiumen_US
dc.description.abstractSix SEIR models are considered in attempting to replicate the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy in the first quarter of 2020. The Excel models make a variety of assumptions, and modifications are assessed to determine which factors created the rise in cases. In each model, the discrete equation I(t) = I(t-1) +1/ξ ∙ E(t-1) – 1/δ ∙ I(t-1) is used to compare how close the simulation got to the actual number of infected individuals at day 50, the peak of the initial outbreak. Modifications to the models and adjustments in parametric values enabled the simulations to closely replicate the actual number of cases. The models indicate that higher values of R0 than those documented in Wuhan, China may have driven case growth. The potential for asymptomatic spread, may have also contributed to the rapid rise of the number of infected in Italy. Future modeling considerations and limitations are also discussed.
dc.description.departmentMathematics & Computer Science
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11274/12906
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.titleModeling COVID-19 in Italyen_US
dc.typePosteren_US

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Student Creative Arts and Research Symposium | 2021