Corporate health promotion and the post industrial society: A futures study in health forecasting
Romer, Kenneth G.
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The researcher explored, through the means of social forecasting, alternative futures for the delivery of health promotion services in the corporate setting. Three alternative forecasts were developed from a three stage research design: (a) historical review, (b) statistical treatment, and (c) scenario narration. Data from the occupational, technological, and economic systems during the 1956 to 1980 time period served as the basis for the historical review. A 43 item event questionnaire was developed from the social indicators revealed in the historical review and an initial probability for each event was judged by a group of 17 experts. The mean score derived from each of these 17 judgments served as the one initial probability for each event. The conditional probabilities for each event pair were then calculated and the limits were placed in a cross-impact matrix. After taking the varying combinations of events revealed by the cross-impact matrix, the following three corporate health promotion alternative futures for the corporate health promotion specialist were intuitively developed: (a) a benchmark or surprise free scenario, (b) a "best of all possible worlds" scenario, and (c) a "worst of all possible worlds" scenario.