Predicting long term success in a particular program by identifying gateway courses

The purpose of this study is to see if students grades in a math class they complete in the beginning of their college careers are indicative of future success in their major. Using pre-existing historical data from Texas Woman s University, we chose Math 1013 as a test gateway course and noted participants grades and if they graduated in their original major or in another major within five years of taking the course. With this data, we developed nineteen possible models using Log-Linear Analysis. After exploring the development of our models, we then tested the models to find the model that most closely fits our data.